When Chicago Bears travel to face the Washington Commanders on Monday night, the betting lines already tell a story: the Commanders are a 5.5‑point favorite at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, and the over/under sits at 49.5 points. Mike Tierney, the SportsLine analyst with a 31‑17‑2 record on his last 50 Bears picks, has weighed‑in, while Data Skrive of FOX Sports has projected a 32‑18 Commanders victory. Adding a wrinkle, star receiver Terry McLaurin is listed as a questionable quad injury, a factor that could tilt the scales.
Historical Context: A Rivalry That Still Flickers
The Bears‑Commanders series is anything but boring. Washington leads the all‑time tally 28‑25‑1, a margin built on close‑cut games and a few dramatic finishes. Most memorable was last season’s 18‑15 showdown, decided by a Hail Mary on the final play. Both clubs have evolved since the franchise’s 2021 rebrand from the Washington Football Team, and the Bears, founded in 1920, remain one of the league’s charter members. The NFC inter‑divisional clash now carries extra weight, as both squads eye playoff positioning in the tightly packed 2025 schedule.
Game Details and the Betting Landscape
Monday Night Football kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, though the broadcast crew is still under wraps. The consensus odds from SportsLine place Washington at -258 on the money line, with a -5.5 spread (both teams at -110 juice). The over sits at -115, the under at -105, according to FOX Sports’ latest update on October 13.
Washington comes into the contest 3‑2, fresh off a 27‑10 drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers and boasting a 2‑0 home record at Northwest Stadium. Chicago sits at 2‑2 after a nail‑biting 25‑24 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, a game decided by a last‑second blocked field goal. The Bears are 1‑1 on the road this season, while the Commanders have never lost at home this year.
Expert Picks and What They Mean
Tierney’s track record makes his words worth listening to, even though he kept his exact pick under wraps. "I’m leaning toward Washington covering the spread," Tierney reportedly told SportsLine, adding that the Bears’ defense still struggles to contain elite receivers – a point that matters with McLaurin sidelined.
Skrive, on the other hand, went all‑in with a 32‑18 scoreline, taking the over at 49.5 points. "Washington’s offensive line has been dominant against the run, and Chicago’s defense has given up 28 points per game this year," he wrote. "If the over clears, it’ll be because the Commanders keep pushing the ball downfield while the Bears try to chase a lead they can’t sustain."
Injury Report: Who’s In, Who’s Out
The biggest question mark revolves around the Commanders’ receiving corps. McLaurin’s quad injury has him listed as questionable, and CBS Sports confirmed he’s officially ruled out alongside rookie Noah Brown, who is nursing a groin/knee complaint. Veteran Deebo Samuel (heel) is listed as questionable, but the reports suggest he’s likely to suit up. For Chicago, quarterback Justin Fields is cleared to play, but the offensive line still deals with a lingering ankle sprain on right tackle.
Potential Impact on the Playoff Race
If Washington covers the spread and the over hits, they’ll tighten their grip on the NFC East, sitting just a half‑game behind the Philadelphia Eagles. A loss could drop them to third place and make a late‑season surge necessary. For Chicago, a win would catapult them into a tie for second in the NFC North, keeping the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers within striking distance.
Even beyond standings, the game offers a litmus test for both teams' mid‑season adjustments. The Commanders’ ability to win without McLaurin will speak to the depth of their receiving room, while the Bears’ third‑straight victory would cement their claim as a rising threat in a division traditionally dominated by the Vikings.
What the Numbers Say: A Statistical Snapshot
- Washington’s offense averages 27.4 points per game; Chicago’s defense allows 28.1.
- The Bears have forced 2.1 turnovers per game; the Commanders have given up 1.8.
- In the last 10 match‑ups, the under has hit 6 times, but the over has covered in 7 of the last 12.
- Both teams are 0‑1 on the road against NFC opponents this season.
Looking Ahead: What Comes After Monday Night?
Regardless of the outcome, both clubs face crucial stretch‑run games. Washington meets the New York Giants the following Sunday, a matchup that could decide the NFC East crown. The Bears travel to Green Bay for a Thursday night showdown that will test their resilience after a potentially grueling Monday.
Betting markets will likely shift dramatically after the game, especially if McLaurin stays sidelined or if the over/under blows out. Sharp bettors will keep an eye on the next day’s line movements, as the NFL’s betting landscape is notoriously volatile halfway through the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
How might Terry McLaurin’s injury affect the Commanders’ chances?
McLaurin accounts for roughly 18 % of Washington’s passing yards this season. Without him, the Commanders will rely more heavily on rookie receiver Jordan Addison and tight end Logan Thomas. If the secondary can generate enough yards after the catch, the impact could be mitigated, but the loss does reduce their offensive versatility and could keep the over from hitting.
What are the key factors behind the 5.5‑point spread?
Washington’s home dominance (2‑0) and superior point differential (+17) contrast with Chicago’s inconsistent road performance. The Commanders also boast a more efficient rushing attack, averaging 124 yards per game, whereas the Bears have struggled to establish the run, managing just 95 yards on average.
Which player could be the surprise factor for the Bears?
Running back Khalil Herbert has been a quiet catalyst, gaining 782 yards through the first five weeks. If he breaks the 100‑yard barrier against Washington’s defense, which has allowed 115 rushing yards per game, the Bears could keep the game closer than the spread suggests.
What does the over/under indicate about the game’s pace?
A 49.5 total points line hints at a moderately high‑scoring affair. Both teams have featured games that topped the 45‑point mark this season, and the Commanders’ recent 27‑10 win suggests they can control tempo while still producing points. Expect a balanced attack with a few big plays that could push the total over.
How important is this matchup for the Bears’ playoff hopes?
A win would lift Chicago to 3‑2, keeping them within a game of the Detroit Lions for the NFC North lead. Conversely, a loss drops them to 2‑3, making the path to the postseason steeper and likely requiring a win in their remaining road games.